PMI's Annual Profit Forecast Declines due to Lowered Heat Tobacco Shipments

PMI by 2FIRSTS.ai
Oct.20.2023
PMI's Annual Profit Forecast Declines due to Lowered Heat Tobacco Shipments
PMI's lower-than-expected shipments of heated tobacco products dampen profit forecasts and overshadow Q3 performance, according to French media Boursorama.

According to a report from Boursorama, a French media outlet, Philip Morris International (PMI) is expecting lower than anticipated shipments of its heated tobacco products this year. This has led to disappointment in the company's upward profit forecast for the year and its underperformance in the third quarter, which exceeded expectations.


Despite playing a significant role in the global tobacco industry, PMI is currently seeking alternatives to tobacco due to the increasing stringency of tobacco regulations and decreasing demands in certain markets. PMI's heated tobacco product, IQOS, has been the company's flagship product in its transition towards tobacco alternatives. Since 2008, PMI has announced investments of over $10 billion in heated tobacco products.


Philip Morris International (PMI) announced that due to delays in its product launch in the Taiwanese market and limited growth in the Russian and Ukrainian markets, as well as uncertainty surrounding the new regulations on heated tobacco products in Europe and its impact on inventory levels, its annual shipment volume of heated tobacco products will be lower than initially projected. This contradicts the optimistic outlook on heated tobacco products that was presented by the company during its investor day in September, shifting the focus away from profit growth.


PMI has announced that its adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter were $1.67. According to data provided by LSEG, analysts had an average expectation of earnings per share of $1.61. However, due to increased cigarette prices, demand for heated tobacco products, and the rapid growth of their nicotine pouch brand Zyn, the company has raised its full-year profit forecast and has exceeded expectations in the third quarter.


We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

Arizona Turns to a 50% Retail Vape Tax as Tobacco Tax Revenue Falls 47% From 2008
Arizona Turns to a 50% Retail Vape Tax as Tobacco Tax Revenue Falls 47% From 2008
Arizona's First Things First is pushing for an excise tax equal to 50% of the retail price of vaping products, estimating that the measure could generate about $100 million annually. The agency says its tobacco-tax revenue has fallen 47% from 2008 levels. Arizona has attempted to broaden its nicotine tax base in each of the past two years: a 2025 bill proposed a 50% wholesale-price tax, while a 2026 measure shifted to a 50% retail-price tax covering alternative nicotine products and vapor products. Separately, the state enacted HB 4001 this year to establish a new licensing and sales framework for alternative nicotine products.
Sep.21
On-Site Report | After FDA Announces Review of PMTA Framework, CTP Director Details Reform Priorities
On-Site Report | After FDA Announces Review of PMTA Framework, CTP Director Details Reform Priorities
FDA CTP Director Bret Koplow used his FDLI keynote in Washington to outline how the agency is rethinking the PMTA framework. He discussed category-specific review, nicotine pouch and sPMTA pilots, AI-assisted review, a 70% reduction in pending applications, and a major staffing constraint: CTP currently has only nine scientific review teams. He also reaffirmed tobacco harm reduction while stressing youth protection, flavored products, risk communication, and the challenge of unauthorized e-cigarettes.
Regulations
Oct.06
Special Report|CrossBar's High-Puff Vapes Draw Attention on Pennsylvania's 163-Product Directory as Link Between Earlier 1.3mL PMTA Filings and New 13mL Products Remains Unclear
Special Report|CrossBar's High-Puff Vapes Draw Attention on Pennsylvania's 163-Product Directory as Link Between Earlier 1.3mL PMTA Filings and New 13mL Products Remains Unclear
Pennsylvania began enforcing its electronic nicotine delivery system directory restrictions on October 19, 2026. Among 163 product listings recorded before enforcement, four CrossBar 20K disposables stood out with 13mL capacity, advertised puff counts of up to 20,000 and a flattened design distinct from conventional pod systems and compact disposables. Historical records identify earlier 1.3mL CrossBar products associated with Romo LLC, while newer 13mL products appeared in several state directories beginning in 2025 under entities including Blue Nine LLC. PMTA compliance expert Mr. K identified amendments and application ownership transfers as possible regulatory mechanisms, although neither has been confirmed in this case. Separately, Reynolds' $7.5 million acquisition of 16 PACHA products and related assets illustrates the commercial value of products linked to historic PMTA submissions.
Special Report
Oct.22
Los Angeles Cracks Down on Illicit Flavored Vapes and Counterfeit Goods: 12 Businesses Searched, 24 Arrested, Eight Truckloads Seized
Los Angeles Cracks Down on Illicit Flavored Vapes and Counterfeit Goods: 12 Businesses Searched, 24 Arrested, Eight Truckloads Seized
Los Angeles authorities searched 12 businesses and arrested 24 people during a multi-agency operation targeting illicit flavored vaping products, flavored cigarettes and counterfeit merchandise on October 22, 2026. The Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department said approximately eight tractor-trailer loads of merchandise were seized. Alleged violations involved flavored tobacco sales restrictions, tobacco licensing requirements and counterfeit trademark laws. Local, state and federal agencies participated. Authorities have not disclosed the number, brands or value of vaping products seized. Investigations remain ongoing.
Enforcement
Oct.28
Why Does JPMorgan Favor BAT Over Philip Morris Despite Forecasting Slower Growth of 3.9% Versus 6.2%?
Why Does JPMorgan Favor BAT Over Philip Morris Despite Forecasting Slower Growth of 3.9% Versus 6.2%?
JPMorgan resumed equity research coverage of British American Tobacco (BAT), Philip Morris International (PMI) and Imperial Brands in November 2026, assigning BAT an Overweight rating and the other two companies Neutral ratings. The bank forecasts like-for-like sales growth of 3.9% for BAT and 6.2% for PMI in 2027, but estimates the two companies will trade at approximately 11 times and 21 times 2027 earnings, respectively. JPMorgan cited BAT's improving position in US nicotine pouches and vaping products as a driver of its investment outlook. BAT reported a 220% constant-currency increase in US modern oral nicotine revenue in the first half of 2026, while PMI's ZYN US shipments returned to growth in the third quarter. Imperial expects NGPs to represent 4% to 5% of sales and has expanded its oral portfolio through acquisitions.
Capital Markets
Nov.12
Germany's Four-Year Tobacco Tax Plan Heads to Parliament as BAT, JTI and PMI Push for Changes
Germany's Four-Year Tobacco Tax Plan Heads to Parliament as BAT, JTI and PMI Push for Changes
Germany's parliament is scheduled to hold a first reading of amendments to the Tobacco Tax Act on September 24. The government plans annual tax increases from 2027 through 2030 covering cigarettes, heated tobacco, vaping liquids and other categories. It expects the reform to generate €756 million in additional revenue in 2027, rising to €3.589 billion in additional annual revenue by 2030. Ahead of the parliamentary debate, the German Association of the Tobacco Industry and Novel Products, or BVTE, launched the "Tabaksteuer mit Augenmaß" campaign backed by BAT, JTI, Philip Morris, Reemtsma and wholesale and retail groups.
Sep.23