At the recently concluded Dortmund tobacco exhibition, senior research consultant Raphael Moreau from market research firm Euromonitor International gave a speech titled "Tobacco and Nicotine Industry Dynamics and Regulatory Environment," discussing the potential of the emerging e-cigarette market, legislative challenges, and future trends in the industry. On September 27, 2Firsts conducted an online interview with Raphael.
Raphael stated that disposable products are expected to gradually phase out of the European market starting in 2025, with sales significantly decreasing. Additionally, he emphasized the compliance challenges faced by Chinese e-cigarette products in the global market, believing it to be a key factor in the success of Chinese products.
Disposable e-cigarettes will gradually phase out of European market starting in 2025
When asked about the market performance of different types of novel tobacco products, Rafael mentioned that Eastern Europe, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are emerging markets for nicotine pouch (OND) products. In particular, Pakistan has seen rapid growth in sales of BAT's VELO, making it the company's third largest nicotine pouch market. The United States, on the other hand, is the largest market for nicotine pouch products, accounting for 61% of global sales.
When it comes to HNB (HTP) products, he emphasizes that Europe and Asia are the regions with the largest sales volume. The EU flavor ban may lead to a slowdown in the sale of heated tobacco products, while the legal status of heated tobacco in the United States remains unclear.
Raphael mentioned that the current focus of heated tobacco is on new flavors and the trend of smoke-free products, emphasizing that Japan remains a market for testing new flavors.
Raphael mentioned that when it comes to electronic vapor products (EVP), it is expected that disposable e-cigarette products will gradually phase out of the market starting in 2025, with sales significantly decreasing. He specifically mentioned that in Europe, disposable e-cigarette brands such as LOST MARY and ELFBAR are undergoing redesigns to meet market demands and maintain their market compliance.
Raphael stated that there is still room for growth in traditional tobacco, and whether new types of tobacco can replace traditional tobacco depends on legislation.
The brand loyalty for e-cigarettes is low, and the approval of the launch of IQOS Iluma is a key milestone
Raphael mentioned that the bankruptcy phenomenon among Chinese e-cigarette companies is partly due to the instability of consumer preferences and the generally low brand loyalty. He specifically pointed out in the discussion that as global regulations on e-cigarettes become stricter, Chinese e-cigarette products will need to address compliance issues in order to succeed in the international market. This is a key issue.
Rafael emphasized the importance of the timing of the approval of IQOS Iluma for the US market, expecting the product to potentially receive approval in the second half of 2025.
Japan, South Korea, and Eastern Europe are emerging markets, while Malaysia has enacted "standard" legislation
Raphael pointed out that Japan, South Korea, and Eastern Europe have huge market potential in the e-cigarette industry, especially in the sales of heated tobacco products (HTP). As the prices of devices become more affordable and the convenience of use increases, consumers in these emerging markets are gradually becoming more aware of and accepting of new tobacco products, providing a fertile ground for the development of the e-cigarette market.
Furthermore, he mentioned that disposable e-cigarettes in Malaysia are expected to experience growth. When discussing Malaysia's new smoking regulations and legislative environment, Raphael stated that the country's new legislation on smoking is "fairly standard" and not a major issue.
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