Key Points
- Cigarette volumes in Spain fell 5.2% in August 2026, with a cumulative 1.0% decline over the latest three months, according to UBS.
- BAT's cigarette volumes fell 14.5%, Imperial Brands declined 8.8%, PMI dropped 6.6% and JTI decreased 4.6%.
- JTI was the only one of the four major tobacco companies to gain market share, increasing six basis points to 26.7%, while BAT lost 104 basis points to 8.3%.
- French customs data showed a 3.7% unadjusted decline in August cigarette deliveries. Adjusting for 21 delivery days in 2026 compared with 20 in 2025 produces an approximately 8.3% decline.
- UBS estimated that Spain accounted for about 5% of Imperial Brands' fiscal 2025 EBIT, compared with 3% for JTI, 2% for PMI and less than 1% for BAT.
2Firsts
October 13, 2026
Cigarette volumes in Spain fell 5.2% year over year in August 2026, with all four major international tobacco companies recording declines, according to government data cited by UBS in an October 7 Investing.com report. British American Tobacco (BAT) posted the steepest decrease at 14.5%, while Japan Tobacco (JTI) gained market share despite a 4.6% volume decline. In France, cigarette deliveries fell approximately 8.3% on a delivery-day-adjusted basis during the same month.
Spain's Cigarette Volumes Fall 5.2% in August, Down 1% Over Three Months
Spain's cigarette volumes fell 5.2% year over year in August, following a 1.2% decline in July and 3.5% growth in June, according to Spanish government data cited by UBS.
Volumes declined a cumulative 1.0% over the three-month period compared with a year earlier.
On a two-year compound annual growth rate basis, August cigarette volumes fell 6.4%.
UBS reported a 3.2% increase in market price and product mix during August. With no excise tax increase during the period, the bank estimated the improvement in manufacturer-level price and mix at approximately 5%.
BAT Volumes Drop 14.5% While JTI Alone Gains Cigarette Market Share
All four major international tobacco companies recorded lower cigarette volumes in Spain during August, although market-share performance differed.
| Company | August Volume Change YoY | Market Share | Share Change YoY | Price/Mix Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Morris International (PMI) | -6.6% | 27.0% | -71 bps | +3.6% |
| Japan Tobacco (JTI) | -4.6% | 26.7% | +6 bps | +3.4% |
| Imperial Brands | -8.8% | 25.5% | -93 bps | +4.4% |
| British American Tobacco (BAT) | -14.5% | 8.3% | -104 bps | +4.1% |
Source: UBS analysis reported by Investing.com on October 7, 2026. One percentage point equals 100 basis points.
BAT recorded the largest volume decline, at 14.5%, while its cigarette market share fell 1.04 percentage points to 8.3%.
Imperial Brands' volumes declined 8.8%, with market share down 0.93 percentage points to 25.5%. Its price and mix increased 4.4%, the largest gain among the four companies.
PMI's volumes fell 6.6% and its market share declined 0.71 percentage points to 27.0%, remaining the highest of the four companies.
JTI's volumes declined 4.6%, but its market share increased 0.06 percentage points to 26.7%, making it the only company in the group to record a share gain.
UBS said the companies other than JTI had lost market share to smaller competitors. The bank also linked Imperial Brands' weaker share performance to price increases above the market average.
French Cigarette Volumes Decline 8.3% After Delivery-Day Adjustment
UBS reported an 8.9% year-over-year decline in French combustible tobacco volumes in August 2026, including an 8.3% fall in cigarettes and an 11.1% decrease in fine-cut tobacco.
French customs data published on September 7 showed cigarette deliveries to authorized tobacco retailers totaled approximately 1.84 billion sticks during August, an unadjusted decline of 3.70% year over year.
Fine-cut tobacco deliveries totaled approximately 340.6 million grams, down 6.62% on an unadjusted basis.
French customs also reported 21 delivery days in August 2026, compared with 20 in August 2025.
The customs statistics are based on Logista deliveries to authorized tobacco retailers. Delivery-day-adjusted figures measure changes in average daily deliveries rather than actual consumer smoking volumes.
UBS also reported a negative 11.2% two-year compound annual growth rate for combustible tobacco volumes in France during August.
French Cigarette Prices More Than Double Those in Spain as UBS Highlights Cross-Border Trade
UBS identified cross-border purchases and illicit trade as factors affecting cigarette volumes in France.
The bank cited cigarette prices of approximately €12 per pack in France, compared with around €5.50 in Spain.
That represents a price difference of approximately €6.50 per pack, with the French price around 2.2 times the Spanish level.
UBS said French tobacco volumes had improved modestly during 2026.
Official retail delivery statistics do not capture all cross-border purchases or illicit consumption and therefore cannot independently quantify the contribution of either factor.
UBS Estimates Spain Accounts for 5% of Imperial Brands' Fiscal 2025 EBIT
UBS also assessed the earnings exposure of major tobacco manufacturers to the Spanish and French markets.
According to estimates reported by Investing.com:
| Company | Spain as Share of Fiscal 2025 EBIT |
|---|---|
| Imperial Brands | Approximately 5% |
| Japan Tobacco (JTI) | Approximately 3% |
| Philip Morris International (PMI) | Approximately 2% |
| British American Tobacco (BAT) | Less than 1% |
The bank estimated France accounted for approximately 1% to 2% of fiscal 2025 earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for the companies covered.
These figures are UBS estimates rather than directly comparable official geographic earnings disclosures from the individual companies.
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