Key Points

• China’s U.S.-bound vape exports totaled approximately $1.58 billion in H1 2026.
• Export momentum has not fully returned after the volatility cycle triggered by U.S. enforcement and inventory effects in 2025.
• Vaping devices and atomization hardware exports rose 15.2% YoY to approximately $421 million.
• Nicotine-containing vaping product exports declined 5.5% YoY to approximately $1.12 billion.
• 6-methyl nicotine-related and other nicotine substitute products increased 234.7% YoY to approximately $33.7 million, emerging as a new category to watch.

2Firsts | Shenzhen

July 22, 2026

China’s vape exports to the U.S. have not yet regained their previous growth momentum.

According to China Customs data analyzed by 2Firsts, China exported approximately $1.58 billion worth of vape-related products to the U.S. in the first half of 2026.

Compared with the same period in 2025, exports were broadly unchanged. But the flat headline number masks a deeper shift: the drivers behind China’s U.S.-bound exports are changing.

Following a year marked by U.S. enforcement actions, supply disruptions and inventory-driven purchasing cycles, the market is moving into a new adjustment phase. Hardware is gaining momentum, traditional nicotine products are losing momentum, and emerging nicotine categories are expanding from a small base.

China’s U.S. Vape Exports Remain Below Previous Momentum After 2025’s Volatility Cycle

The past two years of China’s vape exports to the U.S. cannot be interpreted through a simple year-over-year comparison.

In 2025, the U.S. market experienced two opposing forces.

Early in the year, intensified enforcement against unauthorized vape products disrupted cross-border supply channels, creating shortages and reducing shipments.

Later in 2025, distributors and importers responded by rebuilding inventories, creating a supply-chain “bullwhip effect” that amplified orders and pushed exports sharply higher.

China’s vape exports to the U.S. reached a monthly peak of approximately $590 million in October 2025.

However, the peak was not necessarily a reflection of underlying consumer demand growth. Instead, it reflected a combination of:

• enforcement-driven supply disruption;
• logistics normalization;
• distributor inventory rebuilding.

By 2026, exports began moving away from the extreme volatility of the previous year and toward a more adjusted market environment.

Hardware Exports Reach $421 Million as Traditional Nicotine Products Continue to Decline

The most significant shift in 2026H1 occurred at the product level.

Different product categories are moving in different directions.

Hardware Gains Momentum

Vaping devices and atomization hardware exports continued to expand.

Export value:

• H1 2024: approximately $341 million
• H1 2025: approximately $366 million
• H1 2026: approximately $421 million

Year-over-year growth in H1 2026:

+15.2%

Unlike other categories affected by market adjustments, hardware exports maintained growth momentum across the three-year comparison period.

The data suggests that manufacturing-oriented segments remain relatively resilient as the U.S. market adjusts.

Nicotine-Containing Products Lose Momentum

Traditional nicotine-containing vaping products moved in the opposite direction.

Export value:

• H1 2024: approximately $1.47 billion
• H1 2025: approximately $1.19 billion
• H1 2026: approximately $1.12 billion

Year-over-year change in H1 2026:-5.5%

The continued decline indicates that the traditional finished-product export model is facing increasing pressure from regulatory changes, market maturity and evolving demand patterns.

6-Methyl Nicotine-Related Products Rise 234.7%, Emerging From a Small Base

Beyond traditional vaping categories, a new product signal is emerging.

Products classified under HS24041990, represented by 6-methyl nicotine-related and other nicotine substitute products, reached approximately $33.7 million in U.S.-bound exports during H1 2026.

Year-over-year growth:

+234.7%

Historical data shows that the category has expanded rapidly:

Although still much smaller than hardware and nicotine-containing vaping products, the category has become increasingly visible as U.S. regulators and industry participants debate emerging nicotine compounds, including 6-methyl nicotine.

Because customs classifications do not identify specific chemical ingredients, HS24041990 should not be treated as a direct measurement of 6-methyl nicotine exports. However, it provides an important indicator of the expansion of related nicotine substitute products.

Hardware and Emerging Nicotine Categories Gain Momentum as Product Mix Shifts

The 2026H1 data shows that China’s U.S.-bound vape exports are not simply recovering or declining.

They are changing composition.

Three product trends are developing simultaneously:

• Hardware: gaining momentum with sustained growth;
• Nicotine-containing vaping products: losing momentum amid continued adjustment;
• 6-methyl nicotine-related and other nicotine substitute products: expanding rapidly from a small base.

The shift suggests that China’s role in the U.S. vape supply chain is evolving beyond a single dominant export model.

2026H1 Data Shows a Shift in China’s U.S.-Bound Vape Export Momentum

China’s vape exports to the U.S. have not yet returned to their previous growth momentum.

But the composition of growth is changing.

Hardware exports continue to expand, reflecting the resilience of China’s manufacturing ecosystem. Emerging nicotine substitute categories are gaining visibility, while traditional nicotine-containing products remain under pressure.

For Chinese suppliers, future competitiveness will depend not only on production capacity, but also on the ability to adapt to changing regulatory environments, product categories and market cycles.

Data does not tell the whole story — but it reveals the signals behind market change. 2Firsts Data will continue tracking China’s vape exports, global market flows and product mix shifts, turning customs data and industry analysis into insights on the structural changes shaping the global nicotine industry.

Data Scope

This analysis covers China’s exports to the U.S. across:

Vaping devices and atomization hardware

HS85434000Nicotine-containing vaping products

HS240412006-methyl nicotine-related and other nicotine substitute products

HS24041990Note: HS24041990 cannot be directly equated with 6-methyl nicotine exports, but serves as an important indicator for tracking related nicotine substitute product trends.

2FIRSTS | WIRED Investigation: Chinese-Made Vapes Turn to 6-Methyl-Nicotine and Other Analogs, Challenging U.S. Regulation

U.S. technology and investigative publication WIRED has examined how nicotine analogs are emerging as a new challenge for the country’s vape regulatory framework. The article argues that after the U.S. expanded federal oversight of nicotine products in 2022, some manufacturers began using nicotine-like compounds such as 6-methyl-nicotine that may fall outside existing definitions. Researchers cited by WIRED said some nicotine analogs could be more potent than traditional nicotine, although human health impacts remain unclear. U.S. policymakers are considering broader definitions of nicotine to bring these compounds under federal oversight.

www.2firsts.com

2FIRSTS | Former ATF Official’s Claims on Chinese Vape Companies and 6-Methyl Nicotine Fuel US Regulatory Debate

Former ATF Deputy Director Edgar Domenech has warned that some Chinese vape companies may be using 6-methyl nicotine, a nicotine analogue, raising new questions over how US regulators should classify emerging nicotine compounds.

www.2firsts.com

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