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Contributed by 聚菁荟萃. A long-time researcher in capital markets.
Philip Morris International (PMI), the parent company of Marlboro and heated tobacco brand IQOS, released its Q2 2025 earnings on July 22 (U.S. time). Revenue grew 7.1% year-over-year to $10.14 billion, and adjusted earnings per share rose 20.1% to $1.91, exceeding the company’s guidance range of $1.80 to $1.85. PMI clearly outperformed its own projections in terms of profitability.
However, the market response was negative. The stock dropped 8.4% following the results. The issue? Concerns on the revenue side.
1. Volatile Organic Growth
At first glance, revenue growth seemed stable.
The 7.1% year-over-year growth in Q2 was in line with the 7.3% average of the past five quarters and even showed acceleration over Q1. So what went wrong?
As a global business, PMI reports earnings in U.S. dollars, but operates in many currencies. Exchange rate fluctuations can distort reported figures. For example, if a U.S. company earns 130 Japanese yen this year versus 120 yen last year, that’s an 8% local growth. But if the exchange rate changes from 120 to 130 yen per dollar, reported dollar revenue remains flat.
To counter this, most global firms provide "organic growth" figures—excluding currency impact—to better reflect real performance.
For PMI, the U.S. dollar had strengthened for six straight quarters until Q2 2025, when it finally began to weaken. When currency effects are stripped out, PMI's organic revenue growth tells a different story—one of deceleration.
Unsurprisingly, this sparked concern over the direction of future quarters.
Analysts zeroed in on three emerging issues: challenges in combustible cigarettes, pricing pressure, and uncertainty in nicotine pouch growth.
2. Combustible Cigarette Headwinds
During the earnings call, PMI management cut its 2025 total shipment growth forecast—from 2% to 1%—citing regulatory changes in Indonesia and Turkey.
Indonesia recently passed a regulation limiting nicotine and tar levels in cigarettes, effective mid-2026. This forces PMI to redesign products and manufacturing lines, leading to supply disruptions. More critically, when new tobacco rules are introduced, illicit products often flood the market, undermining legal players. As a major multinational, PMI must comply, even if demand for high-nicotine products persists. Illicit operators, however, face no such constraints.
Indonesia, the world’s second-largest cigarette market after China, consumes 300 billion cigarettes annually. PMI’s shipments in Indonesia account for over 10% of its global volume.
This makes the market’s short- to medium-term volatility a significant concern for investors.
3. Slowing Pricing Power
In consumer goods, revenue growth is typically broken into price and volume components. Ideally, both rise. But often companies must choose: push prices or push volume.
Over the past six quarters, PMI has consistently raised prices—outpacing global inflation.
This strategy mirrors that of premium beer brands in China: sell less, but sell better.
However, PMI hinted that this pricing momentum may taper off in H2 2025. On the earnings call, management noted:
● Combustible pricing may weaken against a high base.
● ZYN didn’t require promotions last year due to supply shortages; now supply has normalized, promotional activity will increase.
● IQOS, while positioned as a premium brand, will not sacrifice volume for excessive pricing.
All signs point to a ceiling on high-single-digit price increases. With reduced pricing flexibility, revenue growth slows, and margin pressure rises.
4. Questions Around ZYN
The nicotine pouch segment remains a niche market, with global size estimates for 2024 ranging from $3–5 billion—a small slice of the trillion-dollar tobacco industry.
Still, due to its smoke-free and discreet nature, and mounting regulatory pressure on combustibles and vapor products, nicotine pouches are gaining traction. PMI's ZYN, acquired via a Swedish company, saw exponential growth—from 43 million cans in 2022 to 640 million in 2024. In H1 2025, ZYN shipments rose to 440 million cans, up nearly 50% YoY.Investors had hoped ZYN would become PMI’s second growth engine after IQOS.
But the Q2 2025 surprise threw cold water on that optimism: ZYN’s shipments declined sequentially.
X-axis: Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 | Source: PMI Quarterly Earnings Reports
Management blamed channel stuffing. Due to last year’s shortages, distributors overstocked in Q1, depressing Q2 orders. PMI estimated a shortfall of 10–20 million cans. Adjusted for this, shipments might still show sequential growth.
Yet, skepticism grew. One analyst bluntly asked if ZYN’s U.S. shipment volume would end up at the low end of PMI’s 800–840 million can forecast. Others questioned whether 840 million was ever realistic.
The CFO stood firm: the range remains achievable, with support from H2 promotions and campaigns. Still, investor confidence wavered. Can ZYN truly scale like IQOS? Or has it already peaked?
5. Valuation Pressure Mounts
To be fair, PMI’s Q2 earnings weren’t weak. Management even raised full-year EPS guidance to $7.33–$7.46, up from $7.26–$7.39. But high expectations come with low tolerance for flaws.
PMI trades at a ~20x P/E ratio. That’s a growth stock valuation. Any softness in revenue can hurt the multiple. Consider rival BAT—flat revenue for three years, but trades at only 10x earnings.
To defend its valuation, PMI must reignite double-digit revenue growth. In the coming quarters, the trajectory of ZYN, price competition, and potential IQOS approval in the U.S. will determine whether the stock can sustain its premium status.
Originally published on WeChat:聚菁荟萃
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