【By 2Firsts, From Shenzhen】On the morning of July 25, 2025, the "2Firsts Global NGP Rethink Forum" organized by two prominent global media and consulting platforms in the field of new tobacco, was officially held in Shenzhen. The theme of the forum was "Rethink. Redefine." and it brought together heavyweight guests from the fields of design, products, compliance, marketing, branding, and scientific research from both domestic and international locations to discuss the future development path and innovation direction of the new tobacco (NGP) industry. The seminar was divided into morning and afternoon sessions covering core topics such as redesigning design and consumer experience, international exploration and cross-border collaboration of Chinese cigars, new markets and new marketing strategies.
Xinan Liu, the Associate Research Fellow of the Institute of Brain Science at the Shenzhen Advanced Technology Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, delivered the keynote speech titled "The Global Opportunities and Challenges of The Novel Tobacco Industry from a Scientific Perspective" in the morning session. Dr. Liu specializes in toxicology of electronic vapor, research on behavioral and molecular mechanisms, and has contributed several relevant research findings and patents, bringing unique scientific insights to the forum.
Xinan Liu first outlined the industry status of the global new tobacco market. She pointed out that the overseas e-cigarette market has vast potential, with the global market expected to reach $246-281 billion by 2024, and potentially increase to $400-1800 billion by 2030. China holds over 90% of the market share in global new tobacco hardware production, earning the title of the "world e-cigarette factory." The export market is expected to reach $11 billion by 2024 and shows a stable growth trend.
She said that the industry's development trend is to transform and upgrade products, positioning them as "healthy and harm-reducing", while actively expanding into emerging markets such as the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa to diversify potential policy risks in traditional markets.
Against the backdrop of opportunities and challenges, Xinan Liu focuses on the core areas of "harm reduction" and "compliance". She points out that the main challenges faced by the emerging tobacco industry include:
·There is a lack of sufficient short-term toxicology data to meet regulatory requirements; long-term health effects are still unclear;
·Concerns about adolescent neurodevelopment and addiction reinforcement mechanisms;
·A lack of support for systematic population long-term cohort studies (required by PMTA Stage 3/4).
In addition, she emphasized the increasingly strict global regulatory trends, such as the PMTA in the United States and the TPD directive in the European Union, as well as various flavor bans and mailing restrictions, all of which pose higher qualifications and health risk assessment standards for products entering international markets.
In the face of serious compliance challenges, "innovation" has become another key factor in industry development.
Xinan Liu proposed that innovative directions include in-depth research on the complex biological effects of nicotine, promoting the diversified development of atomization components, such as developing bioactive additives, synthetic nicotine, and nicotine analogs.
She believes that driven by scientific innovation, industries need to "identify risks" and "propose solutions," including developing new types of aerosol materials that are low in toxicity, low in irritation, and metabolism-friendly, as well as exploring delivery methods for non-nicotine psychoactive substances. By citing recent advances in research on the physiological effects of nicotine and related patents, she demonstrates the vital role of scientific research in driving progress in the industry.
In the final remarks of her speech, Dr. Liu expressed the core idea of this sharing session: "Science as the foundation, ethics as the boundary, responsibility comes first." She called on the e-cigarette industry to learn from history, draw lessons from past developments, and be vigilant of public health crises similar to cases like JUUL.
She emphasized that the future development of the industry must be guided by ethics and shaping a responsible future; at the same time, science should be the foundation of industry development, with all decisions and products rooted in evidence.
Xinan Liu's speech thoroughly analyzed the challenges and opportunities at the forefront of the new tobacco industry, providing valuable insights for attendees to examine the future of the industry from a scientist's perspective. Her emphasis on scientific rigor, ethical responsibility, and sustainable industry development resonated with the audience and sparked deep reflection, garnering positive feedback.
Regarding the two upcoming events (2Firsts Events)
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