Key points
· Trade displacement: After the e-cigarette ban, sales moved underground, primarily to Telegram and some e-commerce platforms, complicating enforcement.
· Enforcement data: Over 200,000 units were seized in H2 2024 and over 440,000 in H1 2025; the illicit market is estimated to have grown by about 120%.
· Market structure: The share of electronic devices in the weekly tobacco market rose from 0.8% in 2022 to 10.1% in 2025, indicating demand shifted to the gray market rather than disappearing.
· User shifts: 52% maintained use, 28% switched to heated tobacco (HTP), 10% returned to cigarettes, and only 5% quit; smoke-free devices are more concentrated among higher-income groups, and prices have risen due to higher compliance risks.
2Firsts, October 20, 2025 — According to KazTAG, experts at the Strategy Public Foundation say that since Kazakhstan banned the import and sale of e-cigarettes in June 2024, related transactions have moved underground, primarily to Telegram and certain e-commerce platforms, making them “almost impossible to regulate” in practice.
Strategy’s study, covering 2023–2025, examines public attitudes toward e-cigarette regulation and the effects of new products and technologies on health, behavior, and the economy. The organization reports that more than 200,000 e-cigarettes were seized in the second half of 2024 and more than 440,000 in the first half of 2025. Independent experts estimate the illicit market’s size has increased by about 120%; despite the ban, roughly half of adult users continue to vape. Over the same period, the share of electronic devices in the weekly tobacco market climbed from 0.8% in 2022 to 10.1% in 2025, suggesting demand has shifted to the gray market rather than vanished.
The research further shows that after the ban, 52% of respondents kept their previous level of e-cigarette use, 28% switched to heated tobacco products (HTPs), 10% returned to conventional cigarettes, and only 5% chose to quit. The foundation notes that smoke-free devices are more prevalent among higher-income groups; meanwhile, e-cigarette prices have risen due to increased compliance risks.
Cover image: KazTAG
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