Challenges Ahead for South Korea's Anti-Smoking Plan

According to a report by News1 on January 16th, the South Korean government's plan to lower the smoking rate among adult males to 25% by 2030 may face significant challenges. A study suggests that in order to achieve this goal, the government may need to implement comprehensive measures to strengthen the smoking ban and increase cigarette prices to 8,000 Korean won per pack or raise them by 10% annually.

According to data from the Korean Society for Tobacco Control, the current smoking rate among adult males in South Korea stands at 31.3%, significantly higher than the average rate of 8.3% among the member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). A research team of experts has used the SimSmoke model to predict that if current policies remain unchanged, the smoking rate could potentially rise to 32.24% by 2030, making it difficult to achieve the government's set objectives.

The research team believes that strengthening non-price policies comprehensively is an effective way to achieve the goal. By expanding smoke-free areas to the entire indoor area and implementing legal regulations and policy promotion, it is expected that the smoking rate can be reduced to 29.7% by 2030. However, the optimal approach to achieving the goal may be to consider non-price policies in combination with increasing cigarette prices.

The team stated that "establishing smoke-free areas and banning tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship are the most effective non-price policies. A complete ban on tobacco advertising and promotion could reduce smoking rates to below 30%." In addition, they also suggested gradually increasing cigarette prices annually to encourage a decline in smoking rates. If cigarette prices are raised to 8,000 Korean won per pack this year, it is estimated that smoking rates will decrease to 24.6% by 2030.

However, the research team also emphasizes the need to enhance public understanding of the increase in cigarette prices in order to establish a supportive foundation and drive more proactive and bold policies. They are calling on the government to consider both price and non-price policies comprehensively in order to achieve the anti-smoking goals for 2030, improve health equity, and reduce smoking rates.